40.43 (Steam) Strange chance of something count.

[Shamanu]

I've tried to learn mechanics today.

And I got some strange results:

1) Chance to dismantle/put back a part 50% - takes me about 5-6 attempts to dismantle or put back a part. 2 critical (quality gone down from 100 to 83)

2) Chance 35% - took me 11-13 attempts. 4 critical (quality gone down from 100 to 73)

3) Chance 5% - didn't even tried to. Last time I've tried, the part gone from 100% to "Broken" on criticals and still wasn't dismantled.

 

So my guess is the chances counts some totally wrong way. With 50% I'd need 2 maybe 3 attempts. Not 5.

With a chance of 35% I'd need a 3-5 attempts. Not 12.

 

And, in advance of someone say "bad luck" - it's not. I've tried out about 10 different parts. The count is the same: 5-6 and 10+.

 

P.S. Hydrocraft mod is here. But I doubt it can interfere a game core.

[Enoahe]

10 hours ago, Shamanu said:

With 50% I'd need 2 maybe 3 attempts. Not 5.

 

Why?

[EnigmaGrey]

Think of it like flipping a coin:

It can be heads or tails. You have a 50% chance each time you flip, yet you can have several flips in a row where you either get only heads or tails. It's only when the sample size is large enough that it actually approaches 1:2. That, ofc, is with a hypothetical coin - one that is perfectly balanced.  In practice, using a computer, the random number generator will have an implicit bias towards a particular distribution, favouring some numbers more than others, regardless of what the stated probability is. Kind of like a real-world coin - imperfections make it more likely to fall one way or the other.

So, it gets weird. (Assuming there isn't a bug with the calc, anyway.)

[Shamanu]

Yeah. I know how randomizer works. And I know math.

Actually I'm a graduated engineer-programmer.

 

So, that's why I've checked it continuously before starting this case.

I've took a car and started to dismantle and put back parts. With 0 level on mechanics all I can do is to take off the wheels and door windows (50% and 35% chances accordingly).

Count on tries to take off wheels: 5,6,4,1

Count on tries to put wheels back: 4,3,5,5

Count on tries to take off windows: 10,8,2,7

Count on tries to put windows back: 7,3,11,14

 

Out of what I can see - chances are NOT like the game shows me.

And I doubt the randomizer can work like this. I mean give a lower values THIS many times in a row.

IDK how to investigate it further. Can try to check up the code myself, tho...

[Shamanu]

After some more investigations I should add:

Even with a skill way higher than required (3 actual vs. 1 needed for example), character still manages to damage parts on detach/attach operations. But the chance of it virtually is 0.