Shamanu Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 I've tried to learn mechanics today. And I got some strange results: 1) Chance to dismantle/put back a part 50% - takes me about 5-6 attempts to dismantle or put back a part. 2 critical (quality gone down from 100 to 83) 2) Chance 35% - took me 11-13 attempts. 4 critical (quality gone down from 100 to 73) 3) Chance 5% - didn't even tried to. Last time I've tried, the part gone from 100% to "Broken" on criticals and still wasn't dismantled. So my guess is the chances counts some totally wrong way. With 50% I'd need 2 maybe 3 attempts. Not 5. With a chance of 35% I'd need a 3-5 attempts. Not 12. And, in advance of someone say "bad luck" - it's not. I've tried out about 10 different parts. The count is the same: 5-6 and 10+. P.S. Hydrocraft mod is here. But I doubt it can interfere a game core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enoahe Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 10 hours ago, Shamanu said: With 50% I'd need 2 maybe 3 attempts. Not 5. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnigmaGrey Posted March 26, 2019 Share Posted March 26, 2019 Think of it like flipping a coin: It can be heads or tails. You have a 50% chance each time you flip, yet you can have several flips in a row where you either get only heads or tails. It's only when the sample size is large enough that it actually approaches 1:2. That, ofc, is with a hypothetical coin - one that is perfectly balanced. In practice, using a computer, the random number generator will have an implicit bias towards a particular distribution, favouring some numbers more than others, regardless of what the stated probability is. Kind of like a real-world coin - imperfections make it more likely to fall one way or the other. So, it gets weird. (Assuming there isn't a bug with the calc, anyway.) Viperel and Shamanu 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamanu Posted March 26, 2019 Author Share Posted March 26, 2019 Yeah. I know how randomizer works. And I know math. Actually I'm a graduated engineer-programmer. So, that's why I've checked it continuously before starting this case. I've took a car and started to dismantle and put back parts. With 0 level on mechanics all I can do is to take off the wheels and door windows (50% and 35% chances accordingly). Count on tries to take off wheels: 5,6,4,1 Count on tries to put wheels back: 4,3,5,5 Count on tries to take off windows: 10,8,2,7 Count on tries to put windows back: 7,3,11,14 Out of what I can see - chances are NOT like the game shows me. And I doubt the randomizer can work like this. I mean give a lower values THIS many times in a row. IDK how to investigate it further. Can try to check up the code myself, tho... Enoahe and EnigmaGrey 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shamanu Posted March 27, 2019 Author Share Posted March 27, 2019 After some more investigations I should add: Even with a skill way higher than required (3 actual vs. 1 needed for example), character still manages to damage parts on detach/attach operations. But the chance of it virtually is 0. EnigmaGrey 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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