Causes of Death - The Statistical Study

[valletpeter]

Falling from a roof after trying to build a wall around the motel

[Hydromancerx]

So I want to say I of course use mods now, and I have used IWBUMS before but do not now. In the early days before mods, death was almost always because of fighting zombies and getting bites. Once I learned the the knife stab trick it was almost always a bad stab that caused a bite and thus death. This has held true when I played IWBUMS and when I used mods. Just thought you should know that there are some constants in the game even if you use mods.

Edited October 3, 2016 by Hydromancerx

[Hellgatsu]

Best thread ever. Last time i died falling from a supermarket roof which i reached building stairs. Then with both broken legs a horde of zombies got me

[Johnnyonoes]

Falling. Every. Time.

 

https://youtu.be/5OPLsyn8bPg?list=PL-p2hHQeefl5cDMq-6OZPoVpEBC9VzFXk&t=634

[AdricTheGreat]

When I played earlier I was playing the latest stable version of the time. I could go back through my characters via YouTube and give you info if you want. Or I could just give you info going forward with my new characters. Which would you prefer?

[4dcatman]

75% of the time zombie bites/scratches ... 15% starvation/thirst (genrally surrounded by zombies) 10% other causes (injury's non zombie, falling(yes i know shhhhh),) 

[Beat43210]

On 8/29/2016 at 6:21 AM, dannyisdude said:

I understand you not quite believing the 25% chance of infection because, well, it is possible it could have changed or it may just be a number thrown out to trick people into thinking their chances of survival are different from what it actually is. However, I quickly looked at the code the verify, and made an explanation of the the code does. I also learned that the thin/thick skinned traits affect the chance of getting infected, which I did not know. 

This should save you some testing. http://imgur.com/a/WTmFg

 

Well. Assuming that previous infections don't impact the future odds of infection survival. The equation of the odds of surviving the first scratch is 100%x0.75.

 

you got your first scratch your chances of surviving it is 75%. This is true for obtaining scratches in the future. Your chances of surviving a scratch in the future are 75% since we are assuming that previous scratches dont impact future odds.

 

But things get interesting when you start accumulating scratches. 

 

Lets have a second assumption that the person has no traits that impact infection odds (thick skinned,thin skinned etc.)

 

imagine you got scratched twice escaping from being mauled. the odds of surviving one scratch mathematically is 75% BUT the odds of surviving both scratches is not 75%. We take the first term (75%) and reapply it back into our original equation. This gives the odds of surviving both scratches are 75%.0.75=56.25%

 

This means that the odds of surviving two scratches (regardless if they were back to back or over the course of weeks-months) is 56.25% instead of 50%. This can be reapplied as many times as you want

 

surviving total 3 scratches 56.25x0.75=42.19% (to two decimal places)

surviving total 4 scratches 42.19x0.75=31.64%

surviving total 5 scratches 31.64x0.75=23.73%

 

this can keep going forever

 

On 8/29/2016 at 3:24 AM, dannyisdude said:

Shouldn't the average be 4 because the chance of getting infected from a scratch is 25%? (Obviously testing may not be exactly 4.)

 

If somebody was actually bothered (or simply wants a challenge) somebody could create a simulation using the data and running 100,000 times in order to calculate on average how many scratches it actually takes for somebody to be zombified from a scratch. I am pretty confident the average would be 2.5 per person.  

[ShylokVakarian]

On 10/3/2016 at 2:18 PM, Hydromancerx said:

So I want to say I of course use mods now, and I have used IWBUMS before but do not now. In the early days before mods, death was almost always because of fighting zombies and getting bites. Once I learned the the knife stab trick it was almost always a bad stab that caused a bite and thus death. This has held true when I played IWBUMS and when I used mods. Just thought you should know that there are some constants in the game even if you use mods.

This is true, but there are two reasons why I am disallowing the use of mods in this study.  One, because mods at all can still influence the way you play and how successful you are (Think spray paint mod, which allows you to mark things so you don't have to keep track of where you've gone and what's where), and two, so I can eliminate variables that may change or invalidate the data.  This is the same reason I disallow cheats (Although it's plain obvious without these reasons) and playing on an experimental/IWBUMS builds (Though I have created a sub form that can accept certain deaths from IWBUMS games as feedback for Indie Stone, which I should give access to soon).

[ShylokVakarian]

12 hours ago, Beat43210 said:

If somebody was actually bothered (or simply wants a challenge) somebody could create a simulation using the data and running 100,000 times in order to calculate on average how many scratches it actually takes for somebody to be zombified from a scratch. I am pretty confident the average would be 2.5 per person.  

This is correct.  The statistics book said this would be the case.

[Ulysseys]

I died from drinking bleach because I wasted my plaster and paint making my fort the wrong color by accident. - This was at 9 months of surviving.

I also died once because I woke up at 4am IRL to play for a bit, and oddly enough my last save was from my guy just waking up at 6am, and on this char I always used a rope escape to leave the house in the morning, but, naturally because I wasn't paying attention and I rappelled straight into a horde = death by mauling.

Also died another time after 15 months because I couldn't find a sledgehammer, decided to end it and drink bleach again. I can't live in a world with no Sledgehammers.

Edited October 7, 2016 by Ulysseys
Additional note.

[saltmummy626]

I can't fill out a form for my friend.

 

My friend was killed when I forced her to eat a roasted cockroach.

[ShylokVakarian]

On 10/7/2016 at 0:53 AM, Ulysseys said:

I died from drinking bleach because I wasted my plaster and paint making my fort the wrong color by accident. - This was at 9 months of surviving.

 

You have issues...

 

On 10/7/2016 at 4:01 AM, saltmummy626 said:

I can't fill out a form for my friend.

 

My friend was killed when I forced her to eat a roasted cockroach.

 

Multiplayer deaths not allowed (Which is why gunshot wounds aren't counted in the Injury section)

[ShylokVakarian]

Ladies and gentlezombies, a good Mondoid to you all, and last night, we hit 250 responses.  As much as I'd love to analyze the data immediately, I have a Statistics exam today at 11am, so both forms will be down for the day.  Wait, both forms?  Yep, that's right, both forms, as we've also hit 50 responses on the Falling subform.  Such a momentous occasion, and yet I have an exam.  If I get an A on this exam, I will...I'm not sure, I'm still not fully awake, but it will definitely be something good.

[ShylokVakarian]

The latest results are now up.  Let's try to get to 500 for shits and giggles.

[Noober84555]

I died because of running out of food (fuck electricity shutoff tbh)

[ShylokVakarian]

Good almost Mondoid, ladies and gentlezombies.  I've been doing some more learning in my Statistics class, and I'm proud to say that I think I have enough knowledge of stats to answer some questions about the data, such as things like "Is there a relationship between difficulty and death by insert-death-type-here?  If so, what is that relationship?" and "Do you have any idea why people die more at certain milestones in time than other milestones?".

 

Please, go ahead and ask me.  I will be answering using the 253 response data set.

Edited October 30, 2016 by ShylokVakarian

[ShylokVakarian]

I would just like to remind everyone that the study is still going, and will continue until Build 35 moves from IWBUMS to Stable.  I would also like to remind you that I am taking questions on the data received from the latest milestone.

 

Also, I would like to know what study you want to see next, so I'll be posting a Google Form to the main post.

Edited November 10, 2016 by ShylokVakarian

[Nameless (NL)]

On ‎5‎-‎10‎-‎2016 at 3:02 AM, Beat43210 said:

 

If somebody was actually bothered (or simply wants a challenge) somebody could create a simulation using the data and running 100,000 times in order to calculate on average how many scratches it actually takes for somebody to be zombified from a scratch. I am pretty confident the average would be 2.5 per person.  

made a small program which does this simulation (it cuts off after 25 scratches so everyone left gets infected at the 26th scratch) if it is actually the 75% to not get infected previous scratches don't matter the average is around 4 scratches per person (most of the time got to 3,99 but whitout the cut-off it would probably be 4) know this was a old post but would like to add this information.

[ShylokVakarian]

5 hours ago, Nameless (NL) said:

made a small program which does this simulation (it cuts off after 25 scratches so everyone left gets infected at the 26th scratch) if it is actually the 75% to not get infected previous scratches don't matter the average is around 4 scratches per person (most of the time got to 3,99 but whitout the cut-off it would probably be 4) know this was a old post but would like to add this information.

Could you post a copy of this program?

[Nameless (NL)]

ofcourse I could put the program in the attachment (made in python 3.5.2) I know there are probably better ways to make this kind off program and if it isn't the 25% of all scratches get infected this program is worthless

infectionsFromScratches.py

Edited November 11, 2016 by Nameless (NL)
needed to change the last sentence

[ShylokVakarian]

Okay, so I can get it to run, but the damn thing closes out before I can see the results.  Does it by chance save the results somewhere?

[Nameless (NL)]

it doesn't save the results but made a extra sentence that (if it works correctly) only closes after you press enter

infectionsFromScratches.py

[ShylokVakarian]

On 11/13/2016 at 8:09 AM, Nameless (NL) said:

it doesn't save the results but made a extra sentence that (if it works correctly) only closes after you press enter

infectionsFromScratches.py

Hmm.  After several trials with 100 people, it SEEMS like 4 is about the average.  But several tries with 100,000 people gets me about an average of 3 most of the time.  It would be interesting to see a version with an upper cap of 250 scratches, and with a more precise average calculation.

 

By the way, what are you using for your average calculation anyways?  I don't code, but I do math.

Edited November 18, 2016 by ShylokVakarian

[Nameless (NL)]

On ‎18‎-‎11‎-‎2016 at 4:25 PM, ShylokVakarian said:

Hmm.  After several trials with 100 people, it SEEMS like 4 is about the average.  But several tries with 100,000 people gets me about an average of 3 most of the time.  It would be interesting to see a version with an upper cap of 250 scratches, and with a more precise average calculation.

 

By the way, what are you using for your average calculation anyways?  I don't code, but I do math.

I took the amount of people that got infected at the scratch then multiplied that by the amount of scratches it took

average = 1 * test1 + 2 * test2 + 3 * test3 + 4 * test4  ( in the actual code this goes up to 25 * test25 + 26 * surv)

(testx is the amount of people that got infected at scratchx)    and I used surv as everyone who doesn't get infected after 26 scratches

then it adds it together and devides that by the total amount of people (the difference probably is because it cuts off at 25scratches and everything above that counts as 26scratches)

averageTotal = average / number

averagetotal is the average that is lets you see and the number is the total amount of people

 

and the average off 3 with 100,000 people is strange for me 100,000 people gets a average of around 3.99

 

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by Nameless (NL)

[ShylokVakarian]

Good Wednesdoid to you, ladies and gentlezombies.  The study is now finished, as responses have stagnated like the 298 bodies you submitted.  Results will soon follow once I patch myself up from the battle that is this semester of college.  I think I did quite a number on the zombie that is the Statistics final, and I've learned some new tricks that may be useful in future studies.

 

I would also like to mention that I'm packing up shop and moving into a new thread to be pinned soon.  No longer will this thread be pinned, but its link will forever be within my shiny new thread.  This thread is also to be locked, so nobody needlessly zombifies it.  We have enough zombies as it is.  My shiny new lab-thread is both on the main post, and in my signature.